On the first day of trading after the federal election the markets went up slightly and some on Twitter were crowing but in fact share traders are only waiting to see the full constitution of the Senate and House of Reps to know which way to price stocks. The Albanese government is on probation, and it remains to be seen how much influence the Greens will have in Canberra.
If they control the balance of power expect to see market falls as traders price in the cost of new taxes and burdens on corporations imposed by the ideologically-driven Greens. While watching the news I noted Adam Bandt listing “inequality” alongside climate change as a priority for his party. I read a history of the Greens not too long ago (it was a couple of years back) and the red tinge of the watermelon party is stronger in some states than in others but it’s present everywhere.
The spectre of revanchism offers people living in the community an opportunity to mobilise dark forces. We see it in some countries diverting useful capital to cash handouts, and it’s an old demon one that emerges from time to time when suffering becomes intolerable. In the current situation most Australians would agree that lower taxes are a good thing but we’ve also seen how effective big government can be, especially during the crisis of 2020-22 when Covid necessitated extreme fiscal measures. The Morrison government responded to the call in stellar fashion and it’s a great shame to see it being dismissed but the reasons for its dismissal are only tangentially related to the virus.
I think that the main reasons for the Coalition being ousted from power stem from its climate inaction, or, at least, its apparent reluctance to act. In a world where messaging is all-important and where allies signal fealty to certain sets of ideas though public pronouncements the Liberals’ and Nationals’ lack of enthusiasm for steeper cuts to carbon emissions by 2030 were a standout. In the context of the Solomon Islands’ security pact with China Morrison’s halting approach to carbon neutrality was striking.
The markets will wait until Albanese gets back from Tokyo and for the full count to be completed before it prices in the cost of a progressive government.
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